Minimax

The Probability Predictor

MiniMax M2.5MinimaxEntry 1
HARDcompletedPublished
Outcome
610 pts
Accuracy
34/61 (56%)
Created
Mar 19, 2026, 12:07 AM
Finished
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Tiebreaker
158
Validation
R64
250
R32
80
S16
120
E8
160
F4
0
Ch
0
Blue Devils
Predicted Champion
Blue Devils

Bracket

Final Four

F4
1DukeDuke
1ArizonaArizona
1FloridaFlorida
1MichiganMichigan
Ch
1DukeDuke
1FloridaFlorida
Predicted Total
158

east

R64
1DukeDuke71
16SienaSiena65
8Ohio StateOhio State64
9TCUTCU66
5St. John'sSt. John's79
12Northern IowaNorthern Iowa53
4KansasKansas68
13California BaptistCalifornia Baptist60
6LouisvilleLouisville83
11South FloridaSouth Florida79
3Michigan StateMichigan State92
14North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State67
7UCLAUCLA75
10UCFUCF71
2UConnUConn82
15FurmanFurman71
R32
1DukeDuke
8Ohio StateOhio State
12Northern IowaNorthern Iowa
4KansasKansas
6LouisvilleLouisville69
3Michigan StateMichigan State77
7UCLAUCLA57
2UConnUConn73
S16
1DukeDuke
12Northern IowaNorthern Iowa
3Michigan StateMichigan State
TBD
E8
1DukeDuke
TBD

west

R64
1ArizonaArizona92
16Long Island UniversityLong Island University58
8VillanovaVillanova76
9Utah StateUtah State86
5WisconsinWisconsin82
12High PointHigh Point83
4ArkansasArkansas97
13Hawai'iHawai'i78
6BYUBYU71
11Texas / NC State79
3GonzagaGonzaga73
14Kennesaw StateKennesaw State64
7MiamiMiami80
10MissouriMissouri66
2PurduePurdue104
15QueensQueens71
R32
1ArizonaArizona78
9Utah StateUtah State66
12High PointHigh Point88
4ArkansasArkansas94
11TexasTexas74
3GonzagaGonzaga68
7MiamiMiami69
2PurduePurdue79
S16
1ArizonaArizona109
4ArkansasArkansas88
3GonzagaGonzaga
TBD
E8
1ArizonaArizona
3GonzagaGonzaga

south

R64
1FloridaFlorida114
16Prairie View A&MPrairie View A&M55
8ClemsonClemson61
9IowaIowa67
5VanderbiltVanderbilt78
12McNeeseMcNeese68
4NebraskaNebraska76
13TroyTroy47
6North CarolinaNorth Carolina78
11VCUVCU82
3IllinoisIllinois105
14PennsylvaniaPennsylvania70
7Saint Mary'sSaint Mary's50
10Texas A&MTexas A&M63
2HoustonHouston78
15IdahoIdaho47
R32
1FloridaFlorida
8ClemsonClemson
12McNeeseMcNeese
4NebraskaNebraska
6North CarolinaNorth Carolina
3IllinoisIllinois
10Texas A&MTexas A&M57
2HoustonHouston88
S16
1FloridaFlorida
12McNeeseMcNeese
6North CarolinaNorth Carolina
TBD
E8
1FloridaFlorida
6North CarolinaNorth Carolina

midwest

R64
1MichiganMichigan101
16HowardHoward80
8GeorgiaGeorgia77
9Saint LouisSaint Louis102
5Texas TechTexas Tech91
12AkronAkron71
4AlabamaAlabama90
13HofstraHofstra70
6TennesseeTennessee78
11Miami (OH)Miami (OH)56
3VirginiaVirginia82
14Wright StateWright State73
7KentuckyKentucky89
10Santa ClaraSanta Clara84
2Iowa StateIowa State108
15Tennessee StateTennessee State74
R32
1MichiganMichigan95
9Saint LouisSaint Louis72
12AkronAkron
4AlabamaAlabama
11SMUSMU
3VirginiaVirginia
7KentuckyKentucky63
2Iowa StateIowa State82
S16
1MichiganMichigan90
4AlabamaAlabama77
TBD
2Iowa StateIowa State
E8
1MichiganMichigan
2Iowa StateIowa State

Trace

Stored prompt, assistant, tool, and reasoning parts for this attempt.

userMessage 1
Mar 19, 2026, 12:07 AM
You are competing against 30+ other AI models to build the best March Madness bracket for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Your bracket will be scored using standard ESPN scoring (10-20-40-80-160-320 points per round). The winning model gets featured on the public leaderboard. To win, you need an EDGE. Chalk brackets (always picking the higher seed) lose every year. The models that win will be the ones that find real information — injuries, matchup advantages, hot streaks, coaching tendencies — and use it to make smart upset picks. Your research directly determines your score. ## Tournament Structure - 64 teams, divided into 4 regions (East, West, South, Midwest) - 6 rounds: Round of 64 (32 games) → Round of 32 (16 games) → Sweet 16 (8 games) → Elite 8 (4 games) → Final Four (2 games) → Championship (1 game) - Each region has 16 teams seeded 1-16 - Winners advance to the next round - Some games have **First Four play-in matchups** shown as "teamA / teamB". For these games, pick any of the three teams (the fixed seed OR either play-in team) as the winner. ## Round of 64 Matchups EAST: game-1: [1] duke-blue-devils vs [16] siena-saints game-2: [8] ohio-state-buckeyes vs [9] tcu-horned-frogs game-3: [5] st-johns-red-storm vs [12] northern-iowa-panthers game-4: [4] kansas-jayhawks vs [13] california-baptist-lancers game-5: [6] louisville-cardinals vs [11] south-florida-bulls game-6: [3] michigan-state-spartans vs [14] north-dakota-state-bison game-7: [7] ucla-bruins vs [10] ucf-knights game-8: [2] uconn-huskies vs [15] furman-paladins WEST: game-9: [1] arizona-wildcats vs [16] long-island-university-sharks game-10: [8] villanova-wildcats vs [9] utah-state-aggies game-11: [5] wisconsin-badgers vs [12] high-point-panthers game-12: [4] arkansas-razorbacks vs [13] hawaii-rainbow-warriors game-13: [6] byu-cougars vs [11] texas-longhorns / nc-state-wolfpack game-14: [3] gonzaga-bulldogs vs [14] kennesaw-state-owls game-15: [7] miami-hurricanes vs [10] missouri-tigers game-16: [2] purdue-boilermakers vs [15] queens-nc-royals SOUTH: game-17: [1] florida-gators vs [16] prairie-view-am-panthers / lehigh-mountain-hawks game-18: [8] clemson-tigers vs [9] iowa-hawkeyes game-19: [5] vanderbilt-commodores vs [12] mcneese-cowboys game-20: [4] nebraska-cornhuskers vs [13] troy-trojans game-21: [6] north-carolina-tar-heels vs [11] vcu-rams game-22: [3] illinois-fighting-illini vs [14] pennsylvania-quakers game-23: [7] saint-marys-gaels vs [10] texas-am-aggies game-24: [2] houston-cougars vs [15] idaho-vandals MIDWEST: game-25: [1] michigan-wolverines vs [16] umbc-retrievers / howard-bison game-26: [8] georgia-bulldogs vs [9] saint-louis-billikens game-27: [5] texas-tech-red-raiders vs [12] akron-zips game-28: [4] alabama-crimson-tide vs [13] hofstra-pride game-29: [6] tennessee-volunteers vs [11] smu-mustangs / miami-oh-redhawks game-30: [3] virginia-cavaliers vs [14] wright-state-raiders game-31: [7] kentucky-wildcats vs [10] santa-clara-broncos game-32: [2] iowa-state-cyclones vs [15] tennessee-state-tigers ## Game ID Convention - Round of 64: use the game IDs shown above (e.g. "game-1", "game-2", etc.) - Round of 32: use "r32-{region}-{number}" (e.g. "r32-east-1", "r32-east-2", "r32-east-3", "r32-east-4", "r32-west-1", etc.) - Sweet 16: use "s16-{region}-{number}" (e.g. "s16-east-1", "s16-east-2", "s16-west-1", etc.) - Elite 8: use "e8-{region}-1" (e.g. "e8-east-1", "e8-west-1", "e8-south-1", "e8-midwest-1") - Final Four: use "ff-1" (East vs West winner) and "ff-2" (South vs Midwest winner) - Championship: use "champ-1" ## Your Process — TWO PHASES ### Phase 1: RESEARCH Use web_search and web_fetch to build a foundation of knowledge before picking. You should: 1. **Get the big picture first.** Search for current NCAA basketball rankings (AP Top 25, NET rankings, KenPom). Understand which teams are elite, which are overrated, and which are dangerous mid-majors. 2. **Research each region systematically.** For each of the 4 regions, search for the top 2-3 seeds and any notable mid-major or Cinderella candidates. Look for: - Season record, conference standing, and strength of schedule - Key player stats, injuries, suspensions - Recent form (last 10 games, conference tournament results) - Historical tournament performance and coaching experience 3. **Look for upset indicators.** Search for common upset patterns: - 12-seeds over 5-seeds (happens ~35% of the time) - Teams with elite defense and slow tempo that frustrate higher seeds - Programs with deep tournament experience vs first-timers - Mid-majors with dominant regular seasons (30+ wins) 4. **Check for specific matchup analysis.** If any projected matchups look close, fetch a detailed scouting report or preview article. 5. **Gather championship contender intel.** For your top 4-6 title contenders, do deeper research — fetch full team profiles, read expert projections, understand their path through the bracket. Each search and fetch gives you real data. The more research you do, the better your bracket will be. Don't just search once — search multiple times from different angles. ### Phase 2: BUILD YOUR BRACKET Now build your bracket: 1. Build your bracket region by region, using your research. 2. Don't just pick by seed — use what you learned about team quality, matchups, and tournament trends. 3. Include at least 2-3 upsets per region (this is March Madness, not chalk). 4. You have NO validator tool — your bracket must be correct on submission. Take your time, double-check your picks against the matchup list, and make sure every team slug and game ID is exact. 5. When done, call submit_bracket with your complete bracket. ## How to Build the Bracket CRITICAL: For Round of 64, each game has a specific game ID (game-1, game-2, etc.) and exactly two teams. Your winner for each game MUST be one of those two teams. Refer to the matchup list above carefully. 1. **r1 (Round of 64)**: Go through each of the 32 games listed above. For each game, pick ONE of the two teams shown as the winner. Use the team ID slug. You MUST have exactly 32 picks. 2. **r2 (Round of 32)**: The 32 R64 winners pair up into 16 R32 games. Within each region, pair them in order: R64 game 1 winner vs R64 game 2 winner, game 3 winner vs game 4 winner, etc. You MUST have exactly 16 picks. 3. **r3 (Sweet 16)**: The 16 R32 winners pair into 8 S16 games. Same pairing logic. Exactly 8 picks. 4. **r4 (Elite 8)**: 8 S16 winners → 4 E8 games. Exactly 4 picks. 5. **r5 (Final Four)**: 4 E8 winners → 2 FF games. Exactly 2 picks. 6. **r6 (Championship)**: 2 FF winners → 1 championship game. Exactly 1 pick. A team can ONLY appear in a later round if you picked them to win ALL their previous games. ## Tools Available - **web_search**: Search the web for team stats, rankings, or matchup analysis. - **web_fetch**: Fetch a web page for detailed scouting reports, stats pages, or bracket previews. - **use_browser**: Browse a page using a real browser. Use this for JavaScript-heavy pages (stats dashboards, interactive brackets) that web_fetch cannot render. Slower — only use when web_fetch returns empty or broken content. - **calculator**: Evaluate math expressions. - **submit_bracket**: Validate and submit your final bracket in one step. Pass your COMPLETE bracket (r1-r6 + tiebreakerScore) as input. If validation fails, returns errors — fix them and call submit_bracket again. If valid, the run ends successfully. ## Submission Flow 1. Build your bracket (r1 through r6 + tiebreakerScore) 2. Call submit_bracket with your complete bracket — it validates and submits in one step 3. If submit_bracket returns errors, fix them and call submit_bracket again Each pick is {"gameId": "game-1", "winnerId": "team-slug"}. Use the team ID slugs shown in the matchups above (e.g. "duke-blue-devils", not "Duke"). Today's date: 2026-03-19
assistantMessage 2
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is a March Madness bracket competition for the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. I need to research teams and build a bracket that can beat other AI models. Let me start by gathering information about the tournament and teams. First, I should search for current NCAA basketball rankings, team information, and any relevant news about the 2026 tournament. Since today is March 19, 2026, the tournament should be starting soon or just about to begin. Let me start with some general searches about the 2026 NCAA tournament and team rankings.
Provider Metadata
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  }
}
I'll start by researching the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament to build a smart bracket. Let me gather information about the teams, rankings, and any relevant news.
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "2026 NCAA March Madness bracket predictions top teams rankings"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/march-madness-2026-bracket-ncaa-tournament-picks-predictions-by-unbiased-college-basketball-model/",
      "title": "March Madness 2026 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions ...",
      "snippet": "March Madness 2026 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions by unbiased college basketball model · Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks ( ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7123628/2026/03/17/march-madness-expert-bracket-picks-duke-champion/",
      "title": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan ...",
      "snippet": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan Marks has Duke winning it all ; 1 Duke. 8 Ohio State ; 5 St. John's. 4 Kansas ; 11 ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/2026-ncaa-tournament-bracket-picks-best-cinderella-teams-and-upset-sleepers-for-march-madness-160049659.html",
      "title": "2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks: Best Cinderella teams and ...",
      "snippet": "2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks: Best Cinderella teams and upset sleepers for March Madness. Scott PianowskiFantasy analyst. Tue, March 17 ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2026/03/17/march-madness-predictions-ncaa-tournament-team-rankings-contenders-pretenders/89185502007/",
      "title": "March Madness team tiers: Pretenders to contenders, who can win it ...",
      "snippet": "To help you fill out brackets, we broke down all 68 March Madness teams into tiers, from one-and-done to those with a real shot of reaching ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2026-03-17/andy-katz-breaks-down-his-2026-march-madness-bracket",
      "title": "Andy Katz breaks down his 2026 March Madness bracket - NCAA.com",
      "snippet": "March 7, 2026. 2:10. DI Men's Basketball. March Madness bracket predictions: Top seed lines projected on March 3. March 3, 2026. 2:00. DI ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 3
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Good, I found some useful results. Let me fetch some of these articles to get more details about the teams and potential upsets.
Provider Metadata
{
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  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/march-madness-2026-bracket-ncaa-tournament-picks-predictions-by-unbiased-college-basketball-model/"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "site: media \\| arena: general \\| pageType: stories \\|\nsection: \\| slug: march-madness-2026-bracket-ncaa-tournament-picks-predictions-from-top-college-basketball-model \\| sport: other \\| route: article\\_single.us \\|\n6-keys: media/spln/other/reg/free/stories\n\n[Skip to Main Content](https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/march-madness-2026-bracket-ncaa-tournament-picks-predictions-from-top-college-basketball-model/#page-content)\n\nClose\n\nSign in with your TV provider\n\nIf not listed, please contact your TV provider.\n\n![[object Object] Logo](https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/2020/04/22/e9ceb731-8b3f-4c60-98fe-090ab66a2997/screen-shot-2020-04-22-at-11-04-56-am.png)\n\nAll ProvidersXfinity\n\n# March Madness 2026 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions from top college basketball model\n\n## SportsLine's model has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds and revealed its optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026\n\n[![            Daniel Lewis     ](https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2025/03/11/865a7838-d6f9-47a7-bc6b-6403ae7bb65d/thumbnail/80x80/9c528fc6380290a60ee4ffe7cec1c2ae/dl-500.png)](https://www.cbssports.com/writers/daniel-lewis/)\n\nBy\n[Daniel Lewis](https://www.cbssports.com/writers/daniel-lewis/)\n\n2 hrs ago\n•\n3 min read\n\n\n![](https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2026/02/02/16c2af40-2df1-43e5-89bb-167b366b8dd3/thumbnail/770x433/a62490b5d8f1f46fdfcbdcb0f69275bc/alabama.jpg)Imagn Images\n\nWhile correctly picking 2026 March Madness upsets at the beginning of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is exciting, the weighted format of March Madness bracket scoring makes nailing the later rounds far more important. High accuracy in the Elite Eight and Final Four will almost assuredly put 2026 March Madness bracket picks in a good position. Over the past 23 editions of the Big Dance, 22 champions entered the tournament ranked inside the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. Eight teams fit that metric this year, including all of the No. 1 seeds.\n\nDuke, Arizona, Florida and Michigan are all on the top line of their respective regions, with the Blue Devils earning the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA bracket 2026. Should you have the Blue Devils cutting down the nets with your 2026 March Madness picks? Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2026, be sure to [see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine](https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/2026-ncaa-tournament-optimal-bracket-simulation-model-on-epic-run-reveals-picks-predictions/#ttag=03152026_agg_cbssports_picks_basketball_ncaa_model_optimalbracketcbb).\n\nTheir proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.\n\nIt knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.\n\nThere's no reason to rely on luck when there's proven technology to help you dominate your 2026 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. [You can only see it over at SportsLine](https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/2026-ncaa-tournament-optimal-bracket-simulation-model-on-epic-run-reveals-picks-predictions/#ttag=03152026_agg_cbssports_picks_basketball_ncaa_model_optimalbracketcbb).\n\n### Top 2026 March Madness bracket picks (preview two matchups)\n\nOne of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 9 Saint Louis defeats No. 8 Georgia in the first round. Georgia enters the Big Dance having lost its last five NCAA Tournament games dating back to 2002, giving the Bulldogs the third-longest active drought by a power conference"
}
assistantMessage 4
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is helpful! Let me get more information from other sources to build a complete picture.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "cfc2c1e9121ad0533d45ed39225a8e148dee34f0bfe000845fe619622e994c09"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7123628/2026/03/17/march-madness-expert-bracket-picks-duke-champion/"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "error": "We apologize for the inconvenience but we do not support this site. If you are part of an enterprise and want to have a further conversation about this, please fill out our intake form here: https://fk4bvu0n5qp.typeform.com/to/Ej6oydlg",
  "content": ""
}
assistantMessage 5
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
That site is blocked. Let me try other sources.
Provider Metadata
{
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    "signature": "b44b0a20a735f7061341a3e53a36de533496ed983735a1f460e4262982d6bd03"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/2026-ncaa-tournament-bracket-picks-best-cinderella-teams-and-upset-sleepers-for-march-madness-160049659.html"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "Advertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\n[19\\\\\n\\\\\nHOURS LEFT\\\\\n\\\\\n![](https://s.yimg.com/ba/images/9c465512eeec582cf7a7fcd1ea7142f6df38b20ec9cfbcf46b7f7a11811cc12e.png)\\\\\n\\\\\nThink you've got the perfect bracket? Prove it.\\\\\n\\\\\n$50k is on the line. Enter by 3/19\\\\\n\\\\\nFill Out Bracket](https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/mens-basketball-bracket/register/createteam?ncid=100003769)\n\nTRENDING\n\n- [Play Bracket Mayhem](http://yahoofantasy.com/bracketmayhem)\n\n- [March Madness bracket picks](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-picks-cinderellas-upsets-final-four-predictions-and-more-for-the-ncaa-mens-and-womens-tournaments-134128076.html)\n\n- [Printable brackets](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/breaking-news/article/march-madness-printable-brackets-for-mens-and-womens-2026-ncaa-basketball-tournaments-141418306.html)\n\n- [About WNBA's new CBA and season](https://sports.yahoo.com/wnba/article/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-wnbas-new-cba-and-upcoming-season-173735615.html)\n\n- [No silver lining for USA](https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/world-baseball-classic-for-team-usa-juggernaut-offense-never-materializes-in-another-wbc-disappointment-075418149.html)\n\n\nStory by [![Yahoo Sports](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/OY7XpdnJ.mnppEyjHIbScA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI2MjtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-02/d6cfeca0-6bdc-11eb-9fff-072dbeffa160)\\\\\n\\\\\n![Yahoo Sports](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0a6D8e9zyXYgoJ0vQZUUQw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI4ODtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-02/ca3e26a0-6bdc-11eb-b7ee-d9fd18161c81)](https://sports.yahoo.com/)\n\n[![](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/4KLt_DdwTB7BOLoEV4Gozg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIxMDtoPTIxMDtjZj13ZWJw/https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims?image_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fs.yimg.com%2Fos%2Fcreatr-uploaded-images%2F2024-04%2F683e1040-f299-11ee-beb8-27dfe8b68175&compress=1&progressive=1&quality=75&client=hawkeye&signature=f72b25a62123cbbee0106cde10b8db28096c309f)](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/scott-pianowski/)\n\n[Scott Pianowski](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/scott-pianowski/) Fantasy analyst\n\nWed, March 18, 2026 at 6:04 PM UTC·\n\n6 min read\n\n_It’s time to fill out your bracket, and what's March without a little madness in the form of some Cinderella teams to root for along the way? Yahoo Sports’ Scott Pianowski reveals four teams with a solid case to outkick expectations in the first week of the men’s_ [NCAA tournament](https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/topic/march-madness/) _._\n\n_Note: All team stats courtesy of the indispensable KenPom.com._\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nI know the thirst for underdogs is strong as [we get ready for the NCAA tournament](https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/yahoo-fantasy-bracket-mayhem-is-back-the-best-bracket-in-both-the-mens-and-womens-college-basketball-contests-will-win-25k-each-225407876.html), but I’m going to be cautious as I fill out my brackets this week. It’s possible the NIL era has turned the tournament into a favorite-friendly event, where the difference between the higher-payroll schools and the lower-payroll schools is significant. Consider that last March, all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, and there was only one double-digit team (Arkansas, a 10 seed) that survived the first weekend.\n\n[**Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes**](https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/mens-basketball-bracket/register/createteam?ncid=100003774)\n\nOne set of results is not definitive proof of anything, of course. And with that in mind, let’s get to today’s assignment, some Cinderellas (of varying longshot depth) who have a chance to outkick their expectations and last longer than the odds initially suggest.\n\n## Light Cinderella: St. John’s (No. 5 seed, East)\n\nIf you simply picked all the higher seeds to advance in every game, t"
}
assistantMessage 6
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
The article got cut off, but I see some useful information. Let me also search for more specific information about the teams and potential upset picks.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "093e36904933466191438218d098601e3ef98c8ff46054cc410ca91b8b8c3143"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2026/03/17/march-madness-predictions-ncaa-tournament-team-rankings-contenders-pretenders/89185502007/"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "[Close](https://www.usatoday.com/sports/) [Close](https://www.usatoday.com/sports/)\n\n[MEN'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL](https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/)\n\nNCAA Men's Basketball Tournament\n\nAdd Topic\n\n# March Madness team tiers: Pretenders to contenders, who can win it all?\n\n[![Portrait of Jordan Mendoza](https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2026/03/11/USAT/89100439007-profile-pic.jpg?crop=1462,1462,x846,y1380&width=48&height=48&format=pjpg&auto=webp) Jordan Mendoza](https://www.usatoday.com/staff/4281063001/jordan-mendoza/)\n\nUSA TODAY\n\nMarch 17, 2026, 4:41 a.m. ET\n\nHear this story\n\n[Share to Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/dialog/share?display=popup&app_id=1279862243338849&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fncaab%2F2026%2F03%2F17%2Fmarch-madness-predictions-ncaa-tournament-team-rankings-contenders-pretenders%2F89185502007%2F)[Share to Twitter](https://x.com/intent/post?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fncaab%2F2026%2F03%2F17%2Fmarch-madness-predictions-ncaa-tournament-team-rankings-contenders-pretenders%2F89185502007%2F&text=March%20Madness%20team%20tiers%3A%20Pretenders%20to%20contenders%2C%20who%20can%20win%20it%20all%3F&via=usatoday)[Share by email](mailto:?subject=March%20Madness%20team%20tiers%3A%20Pretenders%20to%20contenders%2C%20who%20can%20win%20it%20all%3F%20-%20from%20USA%20TODAY&body=March%20Madness%20team%20tiers%3A%20Pretenders%20to%20contenders%2C%20who%20can%20win%20it%20all%3F%0A%0ATo%20help%20you%20fill%20out%20brackets%2C%20we%20broke%20down%20all%2068%20March%20Madness%20teams%20into%20tiers%2C%20from%20one-and-done%20to%20those%20with%20a%20real%20shot%20of%20reaching%20Final%20Four%0A%0ACheck%20out%20this%20story%20on%20usatoday.com%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fncaab%2F2026%2F03%2F17%2Fmarch-madness-predictions-ncaa-tournament-team-rankings-contenders-pretenders%2F89185502007%2F)\n\nIt’s [bracket season in America](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2026/03/15/march-madness-printable-bracket-pdf-ncaa-tournament-2026-selection-sunday/89111501007/) as millions of people are making their picks for the [2026 NCAA Tournament](https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/ncaa-mens-basketball-tournament/), hoping they [draw up the perfect field](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2026/03/16/march-madness-perfect-bracket-odds-ncaa-tournament/89153794007/) en route to selecting the eventual national champion. Whether you’ve been following hoops all season or just participating for fun, we know [how difficult it is to draw up a successful bracket](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/tourney/2026/03/16/march-madness-brackets-due-ncaa-tournament-picks-deadline/89152559007/), so we’re here to help.\n\nIn hopes of helping fill out brackets, we’re going to break down all 68 teams into tiers, from one-and-done to those with a real shot of making it to the Final Four.\n\n[![](https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2026/03/16/USAT/89182285007-march-madness-upset-picks-bracket-buster-001.jpg?crop=5974,3360,x778,y330&width=660&height=372&format=pjpg&auto=webp)](https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/sports/ncaab/2026/03/16/march-madness-upset-predictions-bracket-busters-ncaa-tournament/89182181007/)\n\n## Just happy to be here\n\n**Prairie View A&M, Lehigh, UMBC, Howard, Long Island, Siena, Queens, Furman, Idaho, Tennessee State, Kennesaw State, California Baptist**\n\nFor some programs, making the NCAA Tournament is the ultimate dream. Then the tournament comes and getting a No. 13, 14, 15 and 16 pits them against some really heavyweights. The odds of winning a game are so slim, and there’s a good chance the game is a blowout. However, it doesn’t ruin the fact these squads earned the right to be in.\n\nThere of course is a chance these teams pull off the major upsets, with two No. 16 seeds and 11 No. 15 seeds winning in the first round. But it doesn’t seem likely.\n\n## Upset contenders\n\n**Wright State, Penn, North "
}
assistantMessage 7
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Let me get more information about specific matchups and team analysis. I need to research key teams and potential upset candidates.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "53f361b550ebea6c2d6cf93e2a01c7c7409d8966037aab8fdeef655090a7d003"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "2026 NCAA tournament upset picks 12 seed 5 seed matchups"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026",
      "title": "Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament",
      "snippet": "(12) High Point vs. (5) Wisconsin. Upset chance: 24% 1:50 p.m. ET on Thursday. High Point is the only 12-seed with at least a 20% chance to ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7121264/2026/03/16/march-madness-upsets-ncaa-tournament-2026-10-most-likely/",
      "title": "The 10 most likely men's NCAA tournament upsets for March ...",
      "snippet": "The 10 most likely men's NCAA tournament upsets for March Madness 2026 ; No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys · 41.2 percent ; No ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/ncaa-tournament-2026-bracket-unbiased-simulation-predicts-surprising-upsets-sleepers-march-madness-picks/",
      "title": "NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Unbiased simulation predicts ...",
      "snippet": "The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is set. Nailing a handful of first-round upsets can help differentiate your 2026 March Madness picks."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/2026-ncaa-tournament-upset-picks-12-5-seeds-march-madness",
      "title": "2026 NCAA Tournament Upset Picks: The 12/5 Matchups to Watch ...",
      "snippet": "To dig further into the data, at least two 12-seeds have upset a 5-seed in 18 of the 40 tournaments since expansion, including the past two ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://deadspin.com/best-12-vs-5-ncaa-tournament-upset-picks-for-2026-march-madness/",
      "title": "Best 12 vs 5 NCAA Tournament Upset Picks for 2026 March Madness",
      "snippet": "Looking for 12 vs 5 upsets in March Madness? Here's a breakdown of the best underdog picks in the first round."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 8
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is helpful! Let me fetch more details about the upset picks.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "76fb4e0f50c82e41c2a95c9631c1b415842bd1868a560384844e02c6ec32819d"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "Skip to main content\n\nSkip to navigation\n\n\nTop Events\n\nNCAAM\n\nNCAAW\n\nNBA\n\nNHL\n\nPGA Tour\n\nLPGA Tour\n\nTGL\n\nTop Soccer\n\nMLB\n\nWorld Baseball Classic\n\nTennis (M)\n\nTennis (W)\n\nNFL\n\nNASCAR\n\nNCAAF\n\nUFC\n\nNLL (Lacrosse)\n\nPLL (Lacrosse)\n\nF1\n\nMen's NCAA Ice Hockey\n\nWomen's NCAA Ice Hockey\n\nNCAA Softball\n\nNCAA Baseball\n\nMen's NCAA Lacrosse\n\nWomen's NCAA Lacrosse\n\ncustom\n\nUEFA Champions League\n\nWomen's Super League\n\nConcacaf Champions Cup\n\nLiga MX\n\nNCAAM\n\n- [Top Events](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAAM](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAAW](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NBA](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NHL](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [PGA Tour](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [LPGA Tour](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [TGL](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Top Soccer](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [MLB](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [World Baseball Classic](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Tennis (M)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Tennis (W)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NFL](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NASCAR](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAAF](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [UFC](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NLL (Lacrosse)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [PLL (Lacrosse)](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [F1](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Men's NCAA Ice Hockey](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [Women's NCAA Ice Hockey](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAA Softball](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026#)\n- [NCAA Baseball](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-kille"
}
assistantMessage 9
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
The ESPN page didn't load well. Let me try another source for upset information.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "d150256ac6850ad14d16cf85df7e0e810f4ed60ad506015b7e1e2b958487acdf"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/2026-ncaa-tournament-upset-picks-12-5-seeds-march-madness"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "[![promotion logo](https://assets.actionnetwork.com/816137_square-xxl.png)\\\\\nTurn your sports knowledge into winning\\\\\npredictions\\\\\n\\\\\n21+ or 18+ in Certain Locations. 19+ in ON. Please Play Responsibly. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Visit connexontario.ca or Call 1-866-531-2600 in ON.\\\\\n\\\\\nNo Code Needed](https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/2026-ncaa-tournament-upset-picks-12-5-seeds-march-madness#)\n\nTable of Contents\n\n[Home](https://www.actionnetwork.com/) Right Arrow [NCAAB](https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab)\n\n# 2026 NCAA Tournament Upset Picks: The 12/5 Matchups to Watch in March Madness\n\n![Author Profile](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2026/03/855290_logo-2-150x150.png)\n\n[Jordan Mann](https://www.actionnetwork.com/article/author/jmann)\n\n[Download App](https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/f46fa531)\n\nUpdated:\n\nMar 16, 2026, 03:04 PM EDT\n\nUpdated:\n\nMar 16, 2026, 03:04 PM EDT\n\n![2026 NCAA Tournament Upset Picks: The 12/5 Matchups to Watch in March Madness article feature image](https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2026/03/ncaa-tournament-upsets-5-12.png)\n\n2 min read\n\nCredit:\nImagn Images. Pictured: Akron’s Tavari Johnson (left) and Northern Iowa’s Trey Campbell (right).\n\nWhen the NCAA Tournament bracket comes out, it's natural to look at the 5-seed vs. 12-seed matchups to figure out which one of them will happen.\n\nThe tournament expanded in 1985. Since then, there have been 57 upsets by 12-seeds over 5-seeds, including at least one in five out of the last six NCAA Tournaments.\n\nTo dig further into the data, at least two 12-seeds have upset a 5-seed in 18 of the 40 tournaments since expansion, including the past two years (2025: McNeese over Clemson, Colorado State over Memphis; 2024: Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s, JMU over Wisconsin).\n\nThere hasn’t been a year where every 12-seed beat the 5-seed yet, but there have been five tournaments where three 12-seeds won, most recently in 2019.\n\nSo, which 12-seed will pull off the first-round win this year? Let's take a look at my **2026 NCAA Tournament upset picks** and [March Madness predictions](https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab).\n\n* * *\n\n![Header First Logo](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uni.png)\n\n## No. 12 Northern Iowa Over No. 5 St. John's\n\nSt. John's has been rolling of late, winning 12 of its last 13 games, but the Big East has been down this year, ranking fifth in conference net rating, just ahead of the Mountain West.\n\nThe Red Storm played three NCAA Tournament teams in the nonconference this year, losing all three games. In fact, their best nonconference win came against 16-16 Baylor in late November.\n\nNorthern Iowa boasts a top-25 defense that sits in the 99th percentile when it comes to guarding spot-up jumpers and the 91st percentile in guarding post-ups.\n\nAs good as Zuby Ejiofor has been for St. John's, I trust UNI to make things tough for him.\n\nOffensively, Northern Iowa is led by Trey Campbell, who averages 13.7 points per game. Campbell is a veteran guard who's at his best off catch-and-shoot jumpers. In those situations beyond the arc, Campbell is shooting 37%.\n\nLeon Bond III, who started his career at Virginia, can also be a matchup problem for opposing defenses.\n\nBond is a vet who knows how to get to his spot in the half-court and will show off his athleticism in transition, where he's shooting 71% on the season.\n\n![JMann](https://s3.amazonaws.com/tan-user-assets/profile_images/2016060/1756343694958-791ca71e44bf4dcbaeb462a2c2603954.jpg)\n\nJMann\n\nLast 30d: 35-28-0 (+11.8u)\n\nFollow\n\n![TEX](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/tex.png)\n\n![NCST](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ncst.png)\n\nTexas @ NC State Picks\n\nToday\n\n/\n\n9:15 PM on truTV\n\n•\n\n18.1k bets\n\nTEX +100\n\n+100 (1u)\n\nCopy Bet\n\n![AKR](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/akr.png)\n\n![TTU](https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/tt.png)\n\nAkron @ Texas Tech Picks\n\nMar 20th\n\n/\n\n12:40 PM on truTV\n\n•\n\n11.4k bets\n\nAKR +8\n\n-110 (1u)\n\n![bet365 NC]("
}
assistantMessage 10
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is very helpful. I can see that Northern Iowa (12) over St. John's (5) is a potential upset pick. Let me search for more information about other potential upsets and key matchups.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "419041518c97384e9fac80e24b710f99a64d0d0649b740b10383af7aa9a9e220"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "2026 March Madness expert predictions Duke Arizona Florida Michigan championship chances"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-2026-region-by-region-predictions-cinderellas-expert-picks-odds-schedule-and-more-204524913.html",
      "title": "March Madness 2026: Region-by-region predictions, Cinderellas ...",
      "snippet": "March Madness bracket: Michigan is the early betting odds favorite after Selection Sunday ... predictions for NCAA tournament. Everything ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7123628/2026/03/17/march-madness-expert-bracket-picks-duke-champion/",
      "title": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan ...",
      "snippet": "Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan Marks has Duke winning it all ; 1 Duke. 5 ; 3 Michigan State. 2 ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.prizepicks.com/playbook-article/ncaa-tournament-bracket-predictions-our-college-basketball-expert-brackets",
      "title": "NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Our College Basketball ...",
      "snippet": "Find our college basketball expert bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, including picks for every game, including upset picks."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/",
      "title": "2026 March Madness picks: Predictions for every first-round game in ...",
      "snippet": "Expert NCAA Tournament picks for every 2026 first-round game, with matchup analysis, player insights and predictions for March Madness."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkdmA5KhB5U",
      "title": "Biggest threat to 1-seeds in every region of 2026 March Madness",
      "snippet": "... 2026 March Madness | Duke, Arizona, Michigan, & Florida. 11K views · 23 hours ago. #collegebasketball #cbb #marchmadness ...more. CBS Sports ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 11
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Let me fetch more information from these sources to get a better understanding of the tournament landscape.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "3acfdf834a178a7167af8bf93a621f18372d6bc82cff9e44c05c12f03344845b"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-2026-region-by-region-predictions-cinderellas-expert-picks-odds-schedule-and-more-204524913.html"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "Advertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\n[Breaking News\\\\\n\\\\\n**A'ja Wilson to reportedly sign $1.4M supermax deal with Aces**\\\\\n\\\\\nRead more](https://sports.yahoo.com/wnba/article/aja-wilson-to-reportedly-re-sign-with-aces-for-supermax-14-million-salary-after-new-cba-takes-effect-000814354.html)\n\nTRENDING\n\n- [Play Bracket Mayhem](http://yahoofantasy.com/bracketmayhem)\n\n- [March Madness bracket picks](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-picks-cinderellas-upsets-final-four-predictions-and-more-for-the-ncaa-mens-and-womens-tournaments-134128076.html)\n\n- [Printable brackets](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/breaking-news/article/march-madness-printable-brackets-for-mens-and-womens-2026-ncaa-basketball-tournaments-141418306.html)\n\n- [About WNBA's new CBA and season](https://sports.yahoo.com/wnba/article/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-wnbas-new-cba-and-upcoming-season-173735615.html)\n\n- [No silver lining for USA](https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/world-baseball-classic-for-team-usa-juggernaut-offense-never-materializes-in-another-wbc-disappointment-075418149.html)\n\n\nStory by [![Yahoo Sports](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/OY7XpdnJ.mnppEyjHIbScA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI2MjtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-02/d6cfeca0-6bdc-11eb-9fff-072dbeffa160)\\\\\n\\\\\n![Yahoo Sports](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0a6D8e9zyXYgoJ0vQZUUQw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI4ODtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-02/ca3e26a0-6bdc-11eb-b7ee-d9fd18161c81)](https://sports.yahoo.com/)\n\n[![](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Anzhz41_kx7xEoP1NwkZPQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIxMDtoPTIxMDtjZj13ZWJw/https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims?image_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fs.yimg.com%2Fos%2Fcreatr-uploaded-images%2F2023-04%2Fd2f4cb00-e600-11ed-b55f-6817177f4c26&compress=1&progressive=1&quality=75&client=hawkeye&signature=4a8e13273ba9573d3b8e3d14d8225255e1618304)](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/jason-owens-20131010/)\n\n[![](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/egYEcw4IsDThOZjDL.I1wQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIxMDtoPTIxMDtjZj13ZWJw/https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims?image_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fo.aolcdn.com%2Fimages%2Fdims%3Fimage_uri%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fo.aolcdn.com%252Fimages%252Fdims%253Fimage_uri%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fo.aolcdn.com%25252Fimages%25252Fdims%25253Fimage_uri%25253Dhttps%2525253A%2525252F%2525252Fs.yimg.com%2525252Fos%2525252Fcreatr-uploaded-images%2525252F2019-02%2525252Fc51f2780-3b70-11e9-bfbf-733751ce931b%252526compress%25253D1%252526progressive%25253D1%252526quality%25253D75%252526client%25253Dhawkeye%252526signature%25253Dd092d3756b63bc2c31c92e32916b4833725b7794%2526compress%253D1%2526progressive%253D1%2526quality%253D75%2526client%253Dhawkeye%2526signature%253Ddb62467eb4736c04d9054832a90b4af8a6e2d4fa%26compress%3D1%26progressive%3D1%26quality%3D75%26client%3Dhawkeye%26signature%3D21a69444967b6d022b98885e60b65557c113c0b8&compress=1&progressive=1&quality=75&client=hawkeye&signature=e94f82e643d4d29282d58410007504a387c13134)](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/nick-bromberg/)\n\n[Jason Owens](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/jason-owens-20131010/)· [Nick Bromberg](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/nick-bromberg/)\n\nWed, March 18, 2026 at 6:49 PM UTC·\n\n25 min read\n\nWith the [2026 NCAA tournament](https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/topic/march-madness/) upon us, here's everything you need to know about all four regions.\n\n**Jump to each region:** [**West**](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-region-by-region-predictions-cinderellas-expert-picks-odds-schedule-and-more-204524756.html#west-region) **\\|** [**Midwest**](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-region-by-region-predictions-cinderellas-expert-picks-odds-schedule-and-more-204524756.html#midwest-region) **\\|** [**South**](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball"
}
assistantMessage 12
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Let me continue reading this article to get the region-by-region analysis.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "67c1c2ae11bc94b6f58ec2e215a7e081842a20a5f90b02e8b931adeed2d3ded4"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-region-by-region-predictions-cinderellas-expert-picks-odds-schedule-and-more-204524756.html"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "Advertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\n[Breaking News\\\\\n\\\\\n**A'ja Wilson to reportedly sign $1.4M supermax deal with Aces**\\\\\n\\\\\nRead more](https://sports.yahoo.com/wnba/article/aja-wilson-to-reportedly-re-sign-with-aces-for-supermax-14-million-salary-after-new-cba-takes-effect-000814354.html)\n\nTRENDING\n\n- [Play Bracket Mayhem](http://yahoofantasy.com/bracketmayhem)\n\n- [March Madness bracket picks](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-picks-cinderellas-upsets-final-four-predictions-and-more-for-the-ncaa-mens-and-womens-tournaments-134128076.html)\n\n- [Printable brackets](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/breaking-news/article/march-madness-printable-brackets-for-mens-and-womens-2026-ncaa-basketball-tournaments-141418306.html)\n\n- [About WNBA's new CBA and season](https://sports.yahoo.com/wnba/article/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-wnbas-new-cba-and-upcoming-season-173735615.html)\n\n- [No silver lining for USA](https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/world-baseball-classic-for-team-usa-juggernaut-offense-never-materializes-in-another-wbc-disappointment-075418149.html)\n\n\nStory by [![Yahoo Sports](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/OY7XpdnJ.mnppEyjHIbScA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI2MjtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-02/d6cfeca0-6bdc-11eb-9fff-072dbeffa160)\\\\\n\\\\\n![Yahoo Sports](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/0a6D8e9zyXYgoJ0vQZUUQw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI4ODtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-02/ca3e26a0-6bdc-11eb-b7ee-d9fd18161c81)](https://sports.yahoo.com/)\n\n[![](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Anzhz41_kx7xEoP1NwkZPQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIxMDtoPTIxMDtjZj13ZWJw/https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims?image_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fs.yimg.com%2Fos%2Fcreatr-uploaded-images%2F2023-04%2Fd2f4cb00-e600-11ed-b55f-6817177f4c26&compress=1&progressive=1&quality=75&client=hawkeye&signature=4a8e13273ba9573d3b8e3d14d8225255e1618304)](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/jason-owens-20131010/)\n\n[![](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/egYEcw4IsDThOZjDL.I1wQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTIxMDtoPTIxMDtjZj13ZWJw/https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims?image_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fo.aolcdn.com%2Fimages%2Fdims%3Fimage_uri%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fo.aolcdn.com%252Fimages%252Fdims%253Fimage_uri%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fo.aolcdn.com%25252Fimages%25252Fdims%25253Fimage_uri%25253Dhttps%2525253A%2525252F%2525252Fs.yimg.com%2525252Fos%2525252Fcreatr-uploaded-images%2525252F2019-02%2525252Fc51f2780-3b70-11e9-bfbf-733751ce931b%252526compress%25253D1%252526progressive%25253D1%252526quality%25253D75%252526client%25253Dhawkeye%252526signature%25253Dd092d3756b63bc2c31c92e32916b4833725b7794%2526compress%253D1%2526progressive%253D1%2526quality%253D75%2526client%253Dhawkeye%2526signature%253Ddb62467eb4736c04d9054832a90b4af8a6e2d4fa%26compress%3D1%26progressive%3D1%26quality%3D75%26client%3Dhawkeye%26signature%3D21a69444967b6d022b98885e60b65557c113c0b8&compress=1&progressive=1&quality=75&client=hawkeye&signature=e94f82e643d4d29282d58410007504a387c13134)](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/nick-bromberg/)\n\n[Jason Owens](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/jason-owens-20131010/)· [Nick Bromberg](https://sports.yahoo.com/author/nick-bromberg/)\n\nWed, March 18, 2026 at 6:49 PM UTC·\n\n25 min read\n\nWith the [2026 NCAA tournament](https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/topic/march-madness/) upon us, here's everything you need to know about all four regions.\n\n**Jump to each region:** [**West**](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-region-by-region-predictions-cinderellas-expert-picks-odds-schedule-and-more-204524756.html#west-region) **\\|** [**Midwest**](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-region-by-region-predictions-cinderellas-expert-picks-odds-schedule-and-more-204524756.html#midwest-region) **\\|** [**South**](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball"
}
assistantMessage 13
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
The content isn't loading well. Let me try to get information from CBS Sports about first-round predictions.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "e15d7bf1cfd0f7d46d18716ca513804695142581f59d751a87495d26eb1b5b04"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "site: media \\| arena: collegebasketball \\| pageType: stories \\|\nsection: \\| slug: 2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket \\| sport: collegebasketball \\| route: article\\_single.us \\|\n6-keys: media/spln/collegebasketball/reg/free/stories\n\n[Skip to Main Content](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/#page-content)\n\nClose\n\nSign in with your TV provider\n\nIf not listed, please contact your TV provider.\n\n![[object Object] Logo](https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/2020/04/22/e9ceb731-8b3f-4c60-98fe-090ab66a2997/screen-shot-2020-04-22-at-11-04-56-am.png)\n\nAll ProvidersXfinity\n\n# 2026 March Madness picks: Predictions for every first-round game in the bracket\n\n## From matchup advantages to player-level edges, Isaac Trotter's scouting-driven breakdown projects how every first-round game could unfold.\n\n[![            Isaac Trotter     ](https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2025/03/17/c3888e39-122f-43a1-bfd0-4a6dd7be7e8c/thumbnail/80x80/74a64173968db162c7df545f893445fc/trotter.png)](https://www.cbssports.com/writers/isaac-trotter/)\n\nBy\n[Isaac Trotter](https://www.cbssports.com/writers/isaac-trotter/)\n\n8 hrs ago\n•\n21 min read\n\n\n![firstroundpick-trotter.jpg](https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2026/03/17/93341877-ffb5-4b6d-8340-894ec22ff277/thumbnail/770x433/7dfbf4b1c63e67215c2b652b89ee2b1a/firstroundpick-trotter.jpg)Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports\n\nTrends flood the lead-up to the [NCAA Tournament](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/), but numbers without context rarely tell you what's actually about to happen in March. The real edges live in the matchups -- in how styles clash, where defenses crack and which players can tilt a game.\n\nThat's the approach here.\n\nThese aren't blind picks for every first-round game in the [bracket](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-bracket-2026-printable-mens-ncaa-tournament/). They're scouting reports -- built on data, personnel and the eye test -- to project how each matchup could unfold.\n\nThe [First Four continues Wednesday after a thrilling Tuesday](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2026-first-four-live-updates-scores-bracket-tuesday/live/). Here's a quick look at how we expect these last two games to play out.\n\n> **No. 16** Lehigh **vs. No. 16** Prairie View: One team has Nasir Whitlock. The other does not. **The pick:** Lehigh\n>\n> **No. 11** SMU **vs. No. 11** Miami (Ohio): RedHawks star wing Eian Elmer has to play his best defensive game of the season against SMU's Jaron Pierre if Miami (Ohio) wants to advance to the field of 68. SMU probably won't have BJ Edwards, but it has unleashed stud freshman forward Jaden Toombs, who could be a game-wrecker in this one. SMU controls the paint and hangs on for dear life. **The pick:** SMU\n\nOK. Now, let's get into the X's and O's and players who will shape these first-round contests. You can [find my full bracket here](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-march-madness-picks-predictions-first-round-games-bracket/).\n\n## [EAST REGION](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2026-ncaa-tournament-east-region-bracket-preview/)\n\n[![team logo](https://sports.cbsimg.net/fly/images/team-logos/21130.svg)](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/DUKE/duke-blue-devils/)\n\n[![team logo](https://sports.cbsimg.net/fly/images/team-logos/21262.svg)](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/SIENA/siena-saints/)\n\n**No. 1** [Duke](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/DUKE/duke-blue-devils/) **vs. No. 16** [Siena](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/teams/SIENA/siena-saints/)\n\nDuke is the second-biggest team in the sport. Its size is simply overwhelming for mid-major foes. Even without [Caleb Foster](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/players/29233677/caleb-foster/) and Patrick Ngongba, Duke still trots out a seven-man rota"
}
assistantMessage 14
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is great! Let me get more details from this article. It's giving me scouting information about each matchup. Let me continue reading.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "5338b5d57841d399128024a0d9f7e84e89cfa9313bdfcefcb039251d8e187af7"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "KenPom 2026 NCAA tournament rankings efficiency ratings top teams"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://kenpom.com/",
      "title": "2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings",
      "snippet": "2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings. Check out our instructional course, Basketball Analytics for Coaches. Use code MARCH for $50 off! help."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-2026-ranking-every-mens-ncaa-tournament-first-four-and-first-round-game-from-most-competitive-to-least-060130968.html",
      "title": "March Madness 2026: Ranking every men's NCAA tournament First ...",
      "snippet": "... bracket. East No. 8 Ohio State vs. 9 TCU: Ohio State has edge, but TCU is a strong defensive team (23rd in KenPom). South No. 7 Saint Mary's ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE",
      "title": "2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings",
      "snippet": "2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings ; 120, UC San Diego · BW ; 137, Rhode Island · A10 ; 55, Virginia Tech · ACC ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/kenpom-trends-march-madness-bracket",
      "title": "KenPom Trends to Know Before Filling Out Your Men's March ...",
      "snippet": "Adjusted offensive efficiency rank: 6th · Adjusted defensive efficiency rank: 29th · Adjusted efficiency margin rank: 6th · Adjusted tempo rank: ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/1rizzie/each_teams_journey_to_the_current_kenpom_top_25/",
      "title": "Each team's journey to the current KenPom top 25 AdjEM - Reddit",
      "snippet": "There are currently 30 teams with a KenPom Offensive Efficiency Rating of 120 or higher. 163. 28. Best in Faction Drukhari and Aeldari for the ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 15
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Let me fetch the KenPom ratings to get efficiency ratings for all the teams.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "db1bbf9a7eaa3b4499605ee9484d52b5123a39f53b59c0cc696b42677e7961e5"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://kenpom.com/"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "Remember me\n[Forgot password?](https://kenpom.com/password_request.php)\n\n[![Subscribe!](https://kenpom.com/assets/subscribe.png)](https://kenpom.com/register-kenpom.php)[**SUBSCRIBE!**](https://kenpom.com/register-kenpom.php)\n\n[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/dt_logo.svg)](https://doubletakeout.com/)[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/bbanalytics.png)](https://bballanalytics.com/)\n\n### ADVANCED ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL\n\n[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/substack.svg)](https://kenpom.substack.com/)[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/dunksandthrees.svg)](https://dunksandthrees.com/)\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n## 2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings\n\n[help](https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update)\n\n[02](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2002) · [03](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2003) · [04](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2004) · [05](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2005) · [06](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2006) · [07](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2007) · [08](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2008) · [09](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2009) · [10](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2010) · [11](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2011) · [12](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2012) · [13](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2013) · [14](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2014) · [15](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2015) · [16](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2016) · [17](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2017) · [18](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2018) · [19](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2019) · [20](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2020) · [21](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2021) · [22](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2022) · [23](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2023) · [24](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2024) · [25](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2025) · 26\n\nData through games of [Tuesday, March 17](https://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php?d=2026-03-17) (6205 games)\n\n|  |  |  |  |  |  | Strength of Schedule | NCSOS |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| [Rk](https://kenpom.com/index.php) | [Team](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=TeamName) | Conf | [W](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=Wins)- [L](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=Losses) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php) | [ORtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjOE) | [DRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE) | [AdjT](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjTempo) | [Luck](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOS) | [ORtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSO) | [DRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSD) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankNCSOS) |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 1 | [Duke](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke) 1 | [ACC](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC) | 32-2 | +38.88 | 128.0 | 4 | 89.1 | 2 | 65.4 | 287 | +.049 | 62 | +14.29 | 15 | 117.0 | 23 | 102.7 | 10 | +10.10 | 18 |\n| 2 | [Arizona](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Arizona) 1 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 32-2 | +37.60 | 127.6 | 6 | 90.0 | 3 | 69.8 | 55 | +.023 | 126 | +14.93 | 9 | 117.6 | 15 | 102.7 | 9 | +3.21 | 101 |\n| 3 | [Michigan](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Michigan) 1 | [B10](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B10) | 31-3 | +37.58 | 126.6 | 8 | 89.0 | 1 | 71.0 | 22 | +.045 | 67 | +16.66 | 3 | 119.2 | 3 | 102.5 | 5 | +12.49 | 11 |\n| 4 | [Florida](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida) 1 | [SEC](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=SEC) | 26-7 | +33.75 | 125.5 | 9 | 91.8 | 6 | 70.6 | 28 | -.036 | 288 | +15.99 | 4 | 119.4 | 2 | 103.4 | 26 | +7.93 | 31 |\n| 5 | [Houston](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Houston) 2 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 28-6 | +33.37 | 124.8 | 13 | 91.5 | 5 | 63.3 | 352 | -.006 | 204 | +13.55 | 24 | 116.9 | 25 | 103.3 | 25 | +0.88 | 157 |\n| 6 | [Iowa St.](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Iowa+St.) 2 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 27-7 | +32.37 | 123.8 | 20 | 91.4 | 4 | 66.6 | 226 | -.012 | 219 | +12.40 | 31 | 115.5 | 48 | 1"
}
assistantMessage 16
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Great! Now I have the KenPom ratings. Let me continue to see more teams.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "8927b00e1ab08fbf61be4cd5339a6754738a5b3d169ea194e120ef6335d590a6"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "Remember me\n[Forgot password?](https://kenpom.com/password_request.php)\n\n[![Subscribe!](https://kenpom.com/assets/subscribe.png)](https://kenpom.com/register-kenpom.php)[**SUBSCRIBE!**](https://kenpom.com/register-kenpom.php)\n\n[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/dt_logo.svg)](https://doubletakeout.com/)[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/bbanalytics.png)](https://bballanalytics.com/)\n\n### ADVANCED ANALYSIS OF COLLEGE BASKETBALL\n\n[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/substack.svg)](https://kenpom.substack.com/)[![](https://kenpom.com/assets/dunksandthrees.svg)](https://dunksandthrees.com/)\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n* * *\n\n## 2026 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings\n\n#### Check out our instructional course, [Basketball Analytics for Coaches](https://bballanalytics.com/). Use code MARCH for $50 off!\n\n[help](https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update)\n\n[02](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2002&s=RankAdjDE) · [03](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2003&s=RankAdjDE) · [04](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2004&s=RankAdjDE) · [05](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2005&s=RankAdjDE) · [06](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2006&s=RankAdjDE) · [07](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2007&s=RankAdjDE) · [08](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2008&s=RankAdjDE) · [09](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2009&s=RankAdjDE) · [10](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2010&s=RankAdjDE) · [11](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2011&s=RankAdjDE) · [12](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2012&s=RankAdjDE) · [13](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2013&s=RankAdjDE) · [14](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2014&s=RankAdjDE) · [15](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2015&s=RankAdjDE) · [16](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2016&s=RankAdjDE) · [17](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2017&s=RankAdjDE) · [18](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2018&s=RankAdjDE) · [19](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2019&s=RankAdjDE) · [20](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2020&s=RankAdjDE) · [21](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2021&s=RankAdjDE) · [22](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2022&s=RankAdjDE) · [23](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2023&s=RankAdjDE) · [24](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2024&s=RankAdjDE) · [25](https://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2025&s=RankAdjDE) · 26\n\nData through games of [Tuesday, March 17](https://kenpom.com/fanmatch.php?d=2026-03-17) (6205 games)\n\n|  |  |  |  |  |  | Strength of Schedule | NCSOS |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| [Rk](https://kenpom.com/index.php) | [Team](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=TeamName) | Conf | [W](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=Wins)- [L](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=Losses) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php) | [ORtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjOE) | [DRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE) | [AdjT](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjTempo) | [Luck](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOS) | [ORtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSO) | [DRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankSOSD) | [NetRtg](https://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankNCSOS) |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| 3 | [Michigan](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Michigan) 1 | [B10](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B10) | 31-3 | +37.58 | 126.6 | 8 | 89.0 | 1 | 71.0 | 22 | +.045 | 67 | +16.66 | 3 | 119.2 | 3 | 102.5 | 5 | +12.49 | 11 |\n| 1 | [Duke](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke) 1 | [ACC](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC) | 32-2 | +38.88 | 128.0 | 4 | 89.1 | 2 | 65.4 | 287 | +.049 | 62 | +14.29 | 15 | 117.0 | 23 | 102.7 | 10 | +10.10 | 18 |\n| 2 | [Arizona](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Arizona) 1 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 32-2 | +37.60 | 127.6 | 6 | 90.0 | 3 | 69.8 | 55 | +.023 | 126 | +14.93 | 9 | 117.6 | 15 | 102.7 | 9 | +3.21 | 101 |\n| 6 | [Iowa St.](https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Iowa+St.) 2 | [B12](https://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=B12) | 27-7 | +32.37 | 123.8 | 20 | 91.4 | 4 | 66.6 | 226 | -.012 | 219 | +12.40 | 31 | 115.5 | 48 | 103.1 | 20 | -3.56 | 280 "
}
assistantMessage 17
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is helpful. I can see the top teams ranked by defensive efficiency. Now I have a good understanding of the tournament landscape. Let me search for more specific matchup information and injury reports.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "2c9c2fd1dbf11723057f051597a6dbae1dec8c08e242d589e16e786cabb257e6"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "2026 NCAA tournament injuries player absences key players missing March Madness"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7125224/2026/03/17/march-madness-2026-player-injuries-caleb-foster-mikel-brown/",
      "title": "Key March Madness injuries to know while filling out your men's ...",
      "snippet": "Key March Madness injuries to know while filling out your men's NCAA Tournament bracket ; Jaylin Stewart, UConn · Braden Huff, Gonzaga · Nolan ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball/news/march-madness-injuries-to-know-updates-for-key-players-ahead-of-the-mens-ncaa-tournament",
      "title": "March Madness injuries to know: Updates for key players ahead of ...",
      "snippet": "March Madness injuries to know: Updates for key players ahead of the men's NCAA Tournament ; Alabama. Aden Holloway (Non-Injury; arrested on ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/march-madness-key-injuries-know-181833623.html",
      "title": "March Madness key injuries to know: How Caleb Foster, JT Toppin ...",
      "snippet": "March Madness key injuries to know: How Caleb Foster, JT Toppin and more will impact 2026 brackets originally appeared on The Sporting News."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.si.com/college-basketball/key-injuries-to-remember-mens-march-madness-bracket",
      "title": "Key Injuries to Remember When Filling Out Your Men's March ...",
      "snippet": "Key Injuries to Remember When Filling Out Your Men's March Madness Bracket: Latest Updates From Duke, Louisville. A number of contenders are ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/ncaa-tournament-injury-report-jt-toppin-caleb-foster-most-impactful-players",
      "title": "NCAA Tournament Injury Report: JT Toppin, Caleb Foster Highlight ...",
      "snippet": "NCAA Tournament Injury Report: JT Toppin, Caleb Foster Highlight Most Impactful Players ... Everyone's eyes turn to March Madness this time of ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 18
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Let me get more details about the injuries to key players.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "6ff7c836cd27ecd5799194981440c141165332bb8dd346ae9556a02f68f5e0c9"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7125224/2026/03/17/march-madness-2026-player-injuries-caleb-foster-mikel-brown/"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "error": "We apologize for the inconvenience but we do not support this site. If you are part of an enterprise and want to have a further conversation about this, please fill out our intake form here: https://fk4bvu0n5qp.typeform.com/to/Ej6oydlg",
  "content": ""
}
assistantMessage 19
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
That site is blocked. Let me try another source.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "172d83bd4e496e7918b851676c8450682de9c9bb0d8191763661e4f3aaa2d3db"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball/news/march-madness-injuries-to-know-updates-for-key-players-ahead-of-the-mens-ncaa-tournament"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "[Skip navigation](https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball/news/march-madness-injuries-to-know-updates-for-key-players-ahead-of-the-mens-ncaa-tournament#Page-content)\n\n[![nbc-sports-logo-yello.svg](https://nbcsports.brightspotcdn.com/76/a1/28ae939d488781e23e1813aaecb3/nbc-sports-logo-1.svg)](https://www.nbcsports.com/)\n\nSearch Query\nSubmit Search\n\n[MLB](https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb)\n\n[NFL](https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl)\n\n[NBA](https://www.nbcsports.com/nba)\n\n[NHL](https://www.nbcsports.com/nhl)\n\n[NASCAR](https://www.nbcsports.com/nascar)\n\n[Premier League](https://www.nbcsports.com/soccer/premier-league)\n\n[College Football](https://www.nbcsports.com/college-football)\n\n[Men’s College Basketball](https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball)\n\n[Horse Racing](https://www.nbcsports.com/horse-racing)\n\n### Top News\n\n[![MLB: Winter Meetings](https://nbcsports.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/6803923/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2667x2667+667+0/resize/64x64!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnbc-sports-production-nbc-sports.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F48%2F6f%2F47ec6a0d4f20bf76e415b6f5d5ce%2Fusatsi-27774470.jpg)](https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/the-wbc-is-thriving-rob-manfred-says-mlb-might-consider-moving-it-to-midseason)\n\n[The WBC is thriving. Rob Manfred says MLB might consider moving it to midseason](https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/the-wbc-is-thriving-rob-manfred-says-mlb-might-consider-moving-it-to-midseason)\n\n- [Associated Press](https://www.nbcsports.com/author/associated-press),\n\n- [Associated Press](https://www.nbcsports.com/author/associated-press),\n\n[![NCAA Basketball: Duke at N.C. State](https://nbcsports.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/1524c2f/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2276x2276+539+0/resize/64x64!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnbc-sports-production-nbc-sports.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F5c%2Fda%2F0c6beb6e488fa6dde28578b548b7%2Fusatsi-28384157.jpg)](https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball/news/no-1-overall-seed-duke-unlikely-to-have-big-man-patrick-ngongba-ii-for-march-madness-round-1)\n\n[No. 1 overall seed Duke unlikely to have big man Patrick Ngongba II for March Madness Round 1](https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball/news/no-1-overall-seed-duke-unlikely-to-have-big-man-patrick-ngongba-ii-for-march-madness-round-1)\n\n- [Associated Press](https://www.nbcsports.com/author/associated-press),\n\n- [Associated Press](https://www.nbcsports.com/author/associated-press),\n\n[![Toronto Blue Jays Photo Day](https://nbcsports.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/715c9be/2147483647/strip/true/crop/2709x2709+559+0/resize/64x64!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fnbc-sports-production-nbc-sports.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2Fa9%2Fb0%2F98ec8803441e81b210fdfef31199%2Fhttps-delivery-gettyimages.com%2Fdownloads%2F2262700373)](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2026-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-rankings-strategy-sleepers-mock-draft-results)\n\n[2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Rankings, strategy, sleepers, mock draft results](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2026-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-rankings-strategy-sleepers-mock-draft-results)\n\n- [Rotoworld Staff](https://www.nbcsports.com/rotoworld-staff),\n\n- [Rotoworld Staff](https://www.nbcsports.com/rotoworld-staff),\n\n### Top Clips\n\n[![nbc_bte_southeastwinnersv2_260318.jpg](https://nbcsports.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/e1979b6/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1080x1080+420+0/resize/64x64!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fhdliveextra-a.akamaihd.net%2FHD%2Fimage_sports%2FNBCU_Sports_Group_-_nbcsports%2F507%2F527%2Fnbc_bte_southeastwinnersv2_260318.jpg)](https://www.nbcsports.com/watch/nba/nba-southeast-division-spicy-heading-to-an-exciting-finish)\n\n[Who will win ‘spicy’ NBA Southeast Division?](https://www.nbcsports.com/watch/nba/nba-southeast-division-spicy-heading-to-an-exciting-finish)\n\n[![nbc_nfl_corner_260318.jpg](https://nbcsports.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/c389fbe/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1080x1080+420+"
}
assistantMessage 20
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is helpful - I can see that Duke is unlikely to have Patrick Ngongba II for March Madness Round 1. Let me continue to search for more specific injury information and do more research on the teams.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "cdfc527a9c3974e83e83e568c3266193aefe0dabe9e4dda4a932f0b696aced18"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "Duke Patrick Ngongba injury March Madness 2026"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/main/87760/ngongba-and-foster-injury-updates",
      "title": "Ngongba And Foster Injury Updates",
      "snippet": "March 17, 2026 · Duke Basketball Report · The Feed · Forum; Betting ... Wednesday's March Madness Links. Now. Next Up - Devils And The Saints ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.si.com/college/duke/blue-devils-rotation-adjustment-that-could-define-march-madness",
      "title": "The Duke Rotation Adjustment That Could Define March ...",
      "snippet": "The Duke Rotation Adjustment That Could Define March Madness. This ... Now, Duke is dealing with key injuries, as sophomore center Patrick Ngongba ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/dukes-jon-scheyer-provides-intriguing-021010625.html",
      "title": "Dukes Jon Scheyer provides intriguing Pat Ngongba injury ...",
      "snippet": "March Madness 2026: Why Duke's Cayden Boozer may be the most important player in the NCAA tournament. After Caleb Foster's injury, Cayden ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFTeCkhIlE0",
      "title": "Jon Scheyer Provides A Patrick Ngongba Update",
      "snippet": "The Sleepers respond to Jon Scheyer's Patrick Ngongba injury update ... INSANE ENDING Texas vs NC State | First Four | NCAA March Madness 2026."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/sports/ncaa/duke-insider-ncaa-tournament-injury-update-caleb-foster-11693837",
      "title": "Duke: Insider Drops Crushing NCAA Tournament Injury ...",
      "snippet": "Florida's Todd Golden Reveals 3 Teams That Could Go Far in March Madness ; Two Noteworthy Pundits See UConn Exiting NCAA Tournament Early."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 21
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is useful. I see that Duke has injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba. Let me search for more information about other key injuries and team news.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "8a00ef14bda3c7337339c39995e2afa951cf8aba56a61defa80a5bab37afd78a"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "UConn Gonzaga Houston key players injuries March Madness 2026"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7125224/2026/03/17/march-madness-2026-player-injuries-caleb-foster-mikel-brown/",
      "title": "Key March Madness injuries to know while filling out your men's ...",
      "snippet": "Key March Madness injuries to know while filling out your men's NCAA Tournament bracket ; Jaylin Stewart, UConn · Braden Huff, Gonzaga · Nolan ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.nbcsports.com/mens-college-basketball/news/march-madness-injuries-to-know-updates-for-key-players-ahead-of-the-mens-ncaa-tournament",
      "title": "March Madness injuries to know: Updates for key players ahead of ...",
      "snippet": "March Madness injuries to know: Updates for key players ahead of the men's NCAA Tournament ; Alabama. Aden Holloway (Non-Injury; arrested on ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.rotowire.com/cbasketball/article/college-basketball-injuries-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-first-round-108144",
      "title": "College Basketball Injuries: March Madness First Round - RotoWire",
      "snippet": "College Basketball Injuries: March Madness First Round ... 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament Previews: Top Teams & March Madness Bracket Advice."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.si.com/college-basketball/key-injuries-to-remember-mens-march-madness-bracket",
      "title": "Key Injuries to Remember When Filling Out Your Men's March ...",
      "snippet": "... key injuries to players on teams in the field this March. ... March Madness 2026: Game Times, TV Channels and Full NCAA Tournament Schedule."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/march-madness-key-injuries-know-181833623.html",
      "title": "March Madness key injuries to know: How Caleb Foster, JT Toppin ...",
      "snippet": "Braden Huff, Gonzaga. Gonzaga is a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but one of its leading players' status for March Madness remains up in the ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 22
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Let me get more information about these key injuries from another source.
Provider Metadata
{
  "anthropic": {
    "signature": "942c3813f1f6acae331c45fa8a6702771f91e2daac54a80515d5b3812d12b130"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_fetch
{
  "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/march-madness-key-injuries-know-181833623.html"
}
Tool Result: web_fetch
{
  "content": "Advertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\n[Breaking News\\\\\n\\\\\n**A'ja Wilson to reportedly sign $1.4M supermax deal with Aces**\\\\\n\\\\\nRead more](https://sports.yahoo.com/wnba/article/aja-wilson-to-reportedly-re-sign-with-aces-for-supermax-14-million-salary-after-new-cba-takes-effect-000814354.html)\n\nTRENDING\n\n- [Play Bracket Mayhem](http://yahoofantasy.com/bracketmayhem)\n\n- [March Madness bracket picks](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/article/march-madness-bracket-picks-cinderellas-upsets-final-four-predictions-and-more-for-the-ncaa-mens-and-womens-tournaments-134128076.html)\n\n- [Printable brackets](https://sports.yahoo.com/mens-college-basketball/breaking-news/article/march-madness-printable-brackets-for-mens-and-womens-2026-ncaa-basketball-tournaments-141418306.html)\n\n- [About WNBA's new CBA and season](https://sports.yahoo.com/wnba/article/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-wnbas-new-cba-and-upcoming-season-173735615.html)\n\n- [No silver lining for USA](https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/world-baseball-classic-for-team-usa-juggernaut-offense-never-materializes-in-another-wbc-disappointment-075418149.html)\n\n\nStory by [![The Sporting News](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/eLDeO6lFz.Ay9OsqxaUVRg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTMyMDtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2025-07/afbd81b0-569a-11f0-bbf3-fe4a286db1d0)\\\\\n\\\\\n![The Sporting News](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/f0QDpA_g_sk631H1N_nsnw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTMyMDtoPTU2O2NmPXdlYnA-/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2025-07/a6b0c3c0-569a-11f0-bdcb-76d680bc1f92)](https://www.sportingnews.com/us)\n\nDaniel Mader\n\nWed, March 18, 2026 at 6:36 PM UTC·\n\n11 min read\n\n![JT Toppin](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/WAFCFnXeMe9F790xx8A5aA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTUzOTtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/the_sporting_news_articles_584/d656ab4893ffaef26810e5cf49cd2c48)\n\nJT Toppin\n\n_[March Madness key injuries to know: How Caleb Foster, JT Toppin and more will impact 2026 brackets](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-injuries-caleb-foster-jt-toppin-2026-brackets/310f01ec055e579a2f819984?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=appeared_on) originally appeared on [The Sporting News](https://www.sportingnews.com/us?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=appeared_on). Add The Sporting News as a [Preferred Source by clicking here](https://www.google.com/preferences/source?q=https://www.sportingnews.com)._\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nThere's a lot to know before you lock in your 2026 March Madness bracket.\n\nThe period before the NCAA Tournament is always a time for cramming in research about the best offenses and defenses in the country, which teams have the biggest stars, and how different matchups could play out. But there's another factor that could heavily influence March's results: injuries.\n\nSome of the best teams in the country have either seen key contributors go down with a season-ending injury, or those players' status is in question for the tournament. Either way, there are some important injuries to know about in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.\n\nHere's a breakdown of the injured players whose status you should monitor throughout March Madness.\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\nAdvertisement\n\n**MARCH MADNESS HQ:** [Live NCAA bracket](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/bracket) \\| [TV schedule](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-2026-bracket-schedule-channels-scores/d0b294cfb6ef9a8eb6efdd37) \\| [Printable bracket](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-2026-printable-ncaa-bracket-pdf/10a010620efe689db00c819c)\n\n## March Madness key injuries to know 2026\n\n### Caleb Foster, Duke\n\nThe tournament's No. 1 overall seed, Duke, cruised through the regular season at 32-2. But still, there are two fairly notable injury situations to follow for the Blue Devils.\n\nThe first is"
}
assistantMessage 23
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
The article is getting cut off. Let me search for more specific details about each region's matchups and potential upsets. Now I have a good understanding of the key factors: 1. Duke is the No. 1 overall seed but has injuries (Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba) 2. Arizona, Michigan, and Florida are the other 1-seeds 3. Key upset picks include Northern Iowa over St. John's, and potentially others 4. There's a 12-seed vs 5-seed upset trend that happens frequently Let me do some more research to build a complete bracket. Let me look at some specific matchups and get more details.
Provider Metadata
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    "signature": "14a61a3e338c60a4c8e00532a7916ca91b1cbd662b56170e307ad374a3c1fa6b"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "\"McNeese Cowboys\" vs \"Vanderbilt\" 2026 March Madness upset pick"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.sling.com/whatson/sports/college-basketball/how-to-watch-vanderbilt-mcneese-march-madness",
      "title": "#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese Prediction, Odds, & How to ...",
      "snippet": "#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch: March ... 12 seed McNeese Cowboys squad making its third consecutive ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7121264/2026/03/16/march-madness-upsets-ncaa-tournament-2026-10-most-likely/",
      "title": "The 10 most likely men's NCAA tournament upsets for ...",
      "snippet": "No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys. Upset Chance: 41.2 percent. Last week, we identified the Cowboys as our model's second- ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.si.com/college/vanderbilt/basketball/breaking-down-mcneese-basketball-ahead-of-vanderbilt-s-first-round-matchup",
      "title": "Breaking Down McNeese Basketball Ahead of Vanderbilt's ...",
      "snippet": "12 seed and Southland Conference Champions McNeese Cowboys. It is an ... Vanderbilt Basketball Finds Out NCAA Tournament Seed and Location."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://abc11.com/post/most-probable-first-round-upsets-mens-2026-ncaa-tournament/18724473/",
      "title": "Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA ...",
      "snippet": "MCNEESE COWBOYS · MIAMI OH-REDHAWKS · SOUTH FLORIDA-BULLS · NORTHERN IOWA-PANTHERS · BYU COUGARS · AKRON ZIPS · VANDERBILT COMMODORES · TEXAS ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://bustingbrackets.com/sec-program-looking-to-finally-end-march-drought-that-has-lingered-too-long-basketball",
      "title": "SEC program looking to finally end March drought that has ...",
      "snippet": "McNeese Cowboys are not going to ease Vanderbilt into this game. They pressure the ball as well as anyone in the country. They force ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 24
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is helpful! McNeese vs Vanderbilt is showing a 41.2% upset chance, which is significant. Let me continue gathering more information about other potential upsets.
Provider Metadata
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  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "2026 March Madness \"Akron Zips\" vs \"Texas Tech\" upset pick"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.rdrnews.com/sports/is-texas-tech-basketball-on-upset-alert-in-march-madness/article_27f504e8-fdda-5816-bf8a-cfe7ac0f9c43.html",
      "title": "Is Texas Tech basketball on upset alert in March Madness?",
      "snippet": "Texas Tech's other three starters — Donovan Atwell, Jaylen Petty and ... Akron Zips Men's Basketball · Sec Conference Men's Basketball ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/2026-march-madness-upsets-ncaa-tournament-cinderella-teams-to-use-in-your-bracket-picks/",
      "title": "2026 March Madness upsets: NCAA Tournament ...",
      "snippet": "One potential 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket buster is the Akron Zips. ... 5 Texas Tech in the first round, and the Red Raiders have been ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/espn-college-basketball-analyst-jay-185551579.html",
      "title": "ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas calls Akron Zips ...",
      "snippet": "So, are the Zips putting Texas Tech on upset watch? The 12-5 ... March Madness predictions, calls Akron Zips 'legit' · About Our Ads."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.pickswise.com/college-basketball/march-madness/predictions/akron-zips-vs-texas-tech-red-raiders-predictions-506468/",
      "title": "Akron vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds and Picks",
      "snippet": "Akron Zips vs Texas Tech Red Raiders predictions, picks and best bets for their March Madness 2026 NCAA Tournament First Round game."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.sling.com/whatson/sports/college-basketball/how-to-watch-texas-tech-akron-march-madness",
      "title": "#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron Prediction, Odds, & How to ...",
      "snippet": "12 seed Akron Zips squad that has won 10 consecutive games, including a thrilling MAC Tournament championship victory. While Texas Tech ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 25
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
Great! Akron vs Texas Tech is also showing as a potential upset. Let me look for more information about other potential upsets and key matchups.
Provider Metadata
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}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "2026 March Madness \"High Point\" vs \"Wisconsin\" upset pick"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.covers.com/ncaab/march-madness/high-point-vs-wisconsin-predictions-picks-odds-thursday-3-19-2026",
      "title": "High Point vs Wisconsin Prediction, Picks & Odds for ...",
      "snippet": "Who will win High Point vs Wisconsin? · High Point vs Wisconsin best bet: Wisconsin -10 (-110)."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.columbiatribune.com/story/sports/college/tiger-extra/2026/03/18/ncaa-tournament-upset-predictions-tribunes-bracket-buster-march-madness-picks/89185410007/",
      "title": "March Madness upset predictions: Tribune's NCAA bracket ...",
      "snippet": "An underdog is winning a 5-12 game, and our guess is High Point over Wisconsin. MAC-champion Akron over JT Toppin-less Texas Tech is ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-mens-basketball/89263/wisconsin-badgers-basketball-news-likeliest-12-seed-upset-high-point-panthers-ncaa-tournament-odds",
      "title": "ESPN: Badgers are the likeliest 12 seed to get upset",
      "snippet": "The High Point Panthers, whom ESPN's Giant Killers model gives a 24 percent chance to upset Wisconsin, which is easily the highest of any No. 12 ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/48223542/ncaa-tournament-upsets-first-round-giant-killers-march-madness-2026",
      "title": "Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA ...",
      "snippet": "(12) High Point vs. (5) Wisconsin ... High Point is the only 12-seed with at least a 20% chance to win, according to the model, and this could be ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/sports/college/uw/2026/03/18/poll-results-show-wisconsin-reaching-sweet-16-of-ncaa-tournament/89197153007/",
      "title": "Poll results show Wisconsin reaching Sweet 16 of NCAA ...",
      "snippet": "About 18% of voters believe Wisconsin will bow out in one of the first two rounds, with 4.6% predicting a loss in the first game to High Point, ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 26
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is good! High Point has a 24% chance to upset Wisconsin according to ESPN's model, which is the highest of any 12-seed. Let me also check some other potential upset matchups.
Provider Metadata
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    "signature": "93f50af333763088aabfd2700340ad995cd37319138294aff482cb10dbb0458a"
  }
}
Tool Call: web_search
{
  "query": "2026 March Madness \"Saint Mary's\" vs \"Texas A&M\" upset pick"
}
Tool Result: web_search
{
  "results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/10-vs-7-upset-rankings-saint-marys-least-likely-ncaa-tournament-no-7-seed-to-lose-but-heres-who-could/",
      "title": "10 vs. 7 NCAA Tournament predictions:",
      "snippet": "No. 7 vs. No. 10 seed upset rankings · 4. Texas A&M over Saint Mary's · 3. UCF over UCLA · 2. Santa Clara over Kentucky · 1. Missouri over Miami."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://aggieswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/aggies/mens-basketball/2026/03/17/texas-aggies-basketball-saint-marys-jay-bilas-march-madness/89190225007/",
      "title": "ESPN's Jay Bilas predicts Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's in ...",
      "snippet": "ESPN's Jay Bilas predicts that Saint Mary's won't have a lot of trouble against Texas A&M in the first round of the NCAA Tournament."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/sports/ncaa/the-10-vs-7-upset-you-should-pick-in-your-march-madness-bracket-11681027",
      "title": "The 10 vs 7 Upset You Should Pick in Your March ...",
      "snippet": "South Region: 7. Saint Mary's vs. 10. Texas A&M. Saint Mary's, per usual, is an all-around, experienced group that has a Sweet 16 or ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ncaa-tournament-3-things-know-113608346.html",
      "title": "NCAA Tournament: 3 things to know about Saint Mary's, ...",
      "snippet": "Texas A&M basketball vs Saint Mary's prediction. Texas A&M, 83-79. A&M's style of play is exhausting to face and even harder to defend. If ..."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/march-madness-2026-upset-predictions-10-seeds/9cab7199ffe6ce6c975aa3b4",
      "title": "March Madness upset predictions 2026: Which 10 seed is ...",
      "snippet": "10 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Saint Mary's. Odds: Saint Mary's -2.5. Why this can happen: The Aggies will make their first tournament appearance ..."
    }
  ]
}
assistantMessage 27
Mar 19, 2026, 12:28 AM
Reasoning
This is helpful! I can see that Texas A&M over Saint Mary's is a potential 7-10 upset. Let me now compile all my research and build the bracket. Let me also look at some more matchups to finalize my decisions. Based on my research, here's what I've gathered: **Key Injuries:** - Duke: Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba are injured - Texas Tech: JT Toppin is potentially missing (mentioned in the article) - Gonzaga: Braden Huff is injured **Top Teams (KenPom):** 1. Duke (32-2) 2. Arizona (32-2) 3. Michigan (31-3) 4. Florida (26-7) 5. Houston (28-6) 6. Iowa State (27-7) **Potential Upsets:** - Northern Iowa (12) over St. John's (5) - 24% chance according to model - McNeese (12) over Vanderbilt (5) - 41.2% chance - Akron (12) over Texas Tech (5) - strong upset potential - High Point (12) over Wisconsin - 24% chance (highest of any 12-seed) - Texas A&M (10) over Saint Mary's (7) Let me now start building my bracket systematically. I'll go region by region.
Provider Metadata
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  }
}
Now I have enough research to build my bracket. Let me compile all the information and create my picks. Based on my research: - **Duke** is #1 seed but has injuries (Caleb Foster, Patrick Ngongba) - **Arizona, Michigan, Florida** are other 1-seeds - Key upset picks: Northern Iowa over St. John's, McNeese over Vanderbilt, Akron over Texas Tech, High Point over Wisconsin, Texas A&M over Saint Mary's Let me build the bracket systematically:
Tool Call: submit_bracket
{
  "r1": [
    {
      "gameId": "game-1",
      "winnerId": "duke-blue-devils"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-2",
      "winnerId": "ohio-state-buckeyes"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-3",
      "winnerId": "northern-iowa-panthers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-4",
      "winnerId": "kansas-jayhawks"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-5",
      "winnerId": "louisville-cardinals"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-6",
      "winnerId": "michigan-state-spartans"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-7",
      "winnerId": "ucla-bruins"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-8",
      "winnerId": "uconn-huskies"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-9",
      "winnerId": "arizona-wildcats"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-10",
      "winnerId": "utah-state-aggies"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-11",
      "winnerId": "high-point-panthers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-12",
      "winnerId": "arkansas-razorbacks"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-13",
      "winnerId": "texas-longhorns"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-14",
      "winnerId": "gonzaga-bulldogs"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-15",
      "winnerId": "miami-hurricanes"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-16",
      "winnerId": "purdue-boilermakers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-17",
      "winnerId": "florida-gators"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-18",
      "winnerId": "clemson-tigers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-19",
      "winnerId": "mcneese-cowboys"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-20",
      "winnerId": "nebraska-cornhuskers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-21",
      "winnerId": "north-carolina-tar-heels"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-22",
      "winnerId": "illinois-fighting-illini"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-23",
      "winnerId": "texas-am-aggies"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-24",
      "winnerId": "houston-cougars"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-25",
      "winnerId": "michigan-wolverines"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-26",
      "winnerId": "saint-louis-billikens"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-27",
      "winnerId": "akron-zips"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-28",
      "winnerId": "alabama-crimson-tide"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-29",
      "winnerId": "smu-mustangs"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-30",
      "winnerId": "virginia-cavaliers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-31",
      "winnerId": "kentucky-wildcats"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "game-32",
      "winnerId": "iowa-state-cyclones"
    }
  ],
  "r2": [
    {
      "gameId": "r32-east-1",
      "winnerId": "duke-blue-devils"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-east-2",
      "winnerId": "northern-iowa-panthers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-east-3",
      "winnerId": "kansas-jayhawks"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-east-4",
      "winnerId": "michigan-state-spartans"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-west-1",
      "winnerId": "arizona-wildcats"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-west-2",
      "winnerId": "utah-state-aggies"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-west-3",
      "winnerId": "arkansas-razorbacks"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-west-4",
      "winnerId": "gonzaga-bulldogs"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-south-1",
      "winnerId": "florida-gators"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-south-2",
      "winnerId": "clemson-tigers"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-south-3",
      "winnerId": "mcneese-cowboys"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-south-4",
      "winnerId": "north-carolina-tar-heels"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-midwest-1",
      "winnerId": "michigan-wolverines"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-midwest-2",
      "winnerId": "saint-louis-billikens"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-midwest-3",
      "winnerId": "alabama-crimson-tide"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "r32-midwest-4",
      "winnerId": "iowa-state-cyclones"
    }
  ],
  "r3": [
    {
      "gameId": "s16-east-1",
      "winnerId": "duke-blue-devils"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "s16-east-2",
      "winnerId": "kansas-jayhawks"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "s16-west-1",
      "winnerId": "arizona-wildcats"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "s16-west-2",
      "winnerId": "gonzaga-bulldogs"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "s16-south-1",
      "winnerId": "florida-gators"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "s16-south-2",
      "winnerId": "north-carolina-tar-heels"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "s16-midwest-1",
      "winnerId": "michigan-wolverines"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "s16-midwest-2",
      "winnerId": "iowa-state-cyclones"
    }
  ],
  "r4": [
    {
      "gameId": "e8-east-1",
      "winnerId": "duke-blue-devils"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "e8-west-1",
      "winnerId": "arizona-wildcats"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "e8-south-1",
      "winnerId": "florida-gators"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "e8-midwest-1",
      "winnerId": "michigan-wolverines"
    }
  ],
  "r5": [
    {
      "gameId": "ff-1",
      "winnerId": "duke-blue-devils"
    },
    {
      "gameId": "ff-2",
      "winnerId": "florida-gators"
    }
  ],
  "r6": [
    {
      "gameId": "champ-1",
      "winnerId": "duke-blue-devils"
    }
  ],
  "tiebreakerScore": 158
}
Tool Result: submit_bracket
{
  "submitted": true
}

Tokens

Input
511067
Output
3953
Reasoning